Beckley, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

527
FXUS61 KRLX 250539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
139 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing chances for showers and storms into Friday.
Remaining unsettled through Saturday. High pressure returns
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1010 PM Thursday...

Not much to update with the forecast other than temperatures
post-rainfall. Many locations cooled off quite a bit after the
rain with 60s and lower 70s being reported across the area,
after a warm afternoon in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Still
seeing a persistent band of showers across eastern KY and the
Tri-State Area that will continue moving up from the southwest.

As of 732 PM Thursday...

Seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Tri-State
Area into Ohio, southern coalfields into the central lowlands of
West Virginia, and across the mountains. Most of the lightning
activity has died down, except for a stubborn cell across Gallia
County. Showers will likely continue moving across the area
through the evening as a trough sits overhead though the convective
potential will be continuing to decrease through the evening.

As of 200 PM Thursday...

Filtered insolation through thinning high clouds continues to allow
cumulus/towering cumulus to blossom for the southwestern half of the
forecast area. Expect these clouds to continue to deepen with
additional heading with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
heading into this evening. Tonight, a modest uptick in H850 flow may
continue to support elevated shower/thunderstorms heading into
Friday morning. While rainfall rates out of this activity is not
expected to be very robust, they will be rather slow moving and
couldn`t rule out some very isolated minor water issues.

Whatever remaining isolated elevated activity remains near daybreak
should dissipate into late morning with renewed surface based
isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms popping up again by
afternoon. Coverage should then increase late Friday afternoon with
forcing ahead of a prefrontal trough, and then eventual cold frontal
passage overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Given only a modest
uptick in flow aloft, not expecting severe weather from any of this
activity.

Basin average rainfall amounts should be on the lighter side for the
entire event, perhaps 3/4 to 1.5 inches, but given the
aforementioned slow storm motions, some isolated, mainly minor
high water issues are possible, especially across our far south
where some measurable rainfall has occurred over the last 3
days and the green-up is not quite as far along as it is over
much of the lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Thursday...

With frontal boundary north of the area, southwest flow will bring
warm and moist airmass into our area, allowing for slow-moving
diurnal heat related convection Friday afternoon and evening.
PWATs about 1.4 inches (+2SD from climatology) are indicative of
abundant moisture. The passage of an H500 trough may provide
enough forcing to produce widespread precipitation into Friday
night. WPC maintains most of the area under a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall.

Precipitation should diminish in coverage and intensity overnight
Friday. However, a cold front arrives early Saturday morning to
bring additional precipitation.

Precipitation will gradually taper off from northwest to southeast
as high pressure builds in behind the front Saturday afternoon and
evening. Drier conditions are then expected for Saturday night.

For Friday, abundant cloudiness and cooling showers will allow high
temperatures to reach the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging
into the upper 50s northeast mountains. Cooler temperatures, closer
to normal values, are expected for Saturday behind the cold
front, with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 60s across
the lowlands, and raging into the upper 50s northeast mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Thursday...

Strong high pressure builds from the northwest on Sunday, to provide
dry weather conditions through Monday. Although near normal temperatures
are expected Sunday, plenty of sunshine and weak flow will allow for
a warm up Monday.

Guidance is struggling with the arrival of the next cold front late
Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Accepted general guidance with
chance PoPs for now. Winds will become strong and gusty as the
front approaches the area on Tuesday.

Temperatures by mid week will highly depend of the passing systems
as they provide cloudiness and cooling showers affecting highs
and lows.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 138 AM Friday...

Scattered showers continue across primarily the western half of
our area, with the risk for thunderstorms diminishing given loss
of instability. Showers will continue to develop across the area
overnight and into Friday and gradually increase in coverage by
the afternoon, with thunderstorms once again becoming possible
Friday afternoon into Friday night. These will likely result in
MVFR CIGs/VISBYs for most, if not all terminals, at times with
IFR/LIFR conditions possible in the heaviest showers/storms,
with IFR CIGs expected for most terminals late in the period.

Winds will be light and variable overnight, with higher
gusts/erratic direction possible in any showers/isolated storms.
Otherwise, winds will gradually increase this afternoon with
south turning southwest gusts of 10 to 20 mph expected area-
wide, with higher gusts possible in the mountains and near BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 04/25/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in showers and storms through Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...28/JP/LTC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...28